Gasoline futures jumped Monday, ending at a one-month high, while oil prices ended saw a more modest gain, a day after Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana, shutting down Gulf Coast refineries as it also knocked out the bulk of the region’s offshore oil and natural-gas production.

“Hurricane Ida has been bad for gasoline production as the shutdowns have represented 13% of refining capacity, which could be shut down for up to a week if there is extensive flooding and power outages,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and portfolio manager at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, in emailed comments.

A short-term spike in gasoline prices was likely to result from the storm, he said.

Read: Ida weakens as rescue efforts and damage assessments get under way in Louisiana

Gasoline for September delivery
RBU21,
+1.59%
,
which expires at the end of Tuesday’s trading, rose 4 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $2.312 a gallon after trading as high as $2.369 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That the was highest front-month contract finish since July 30, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The most active October gasoline contract
RB00,
+1.59%

RBV21,
+1.59%

added 3 cents, or 1.6%, at $2.154 a gallon.

September heating oil
HOU21,
+1.38%

also rose by 3 cents, or 1.5%, to $2.140 a gallon, with the October contract
HOV21,
+1.35%

up 3 cents, or 1.5%, at $2.138 a gallon.

West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery
CL00,
+0.55%

CLV21,
+0.55%

rose 47 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $69.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. October Brent crude
BRNV21,
-0.10%
,
the global benchmark, rose 71 cents, or 1%, at $73.41 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, while the most actively traded contract, November
BRN00,
-0.10%

BRNX21,
-0.10%

added 53 cents, or 0.7%, at $72.23 a barrel.

The offshore recovery should be “fairly fast, but we are likely to see an increase in the crack spread between gasoline and crude and heating oil,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. Overall, however, he doesn’t expect to see a lasting impact. The crack spread is the differential between the price of a barrel of crude and the products that can refined from it.

Colonial Pipeline, which provides the main artery for transporting fuel from Houston to the South and the East Coast, on Sunday shut down two lines that provide deliveries from Houston to Greensboro, North Carolina. The company expects operations to resume full service after it evaluates the damage to infrastructure.

Gasoline prices at the retail level haven’t shown much of a reaction to the storm. Monday’s average price for regular unleaded stood at $3.151 a gallon, compared with $3.148 on Sunday, according to AAA. A week ago, prices were higher, averaging $3.162.

Ida may lead to an estimated increase in national average gasoline prices of 5 to 9 cents a gallon, said Ken Robinson, market research manager at Motus. It’s difficult to estimate the impacts on oil production and refining operations right after a storm passes, mainly because floodwaters need to recede before recovery can begin. he said.

Read: ‘The recovery is only just beginning’: Analysts calculate Hurricane Ida’s impact on gas prices

The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported Monday that an estimated 94.60% of oil production and 93.57% of natural-gas production, in Gulf of Mexico oil production was shut down. That marks a slight production improvement from Sunday, when 95.65% of oil output and 93.75% of natural-gas output was down.

Natural-gas futures settled lower, with the October contract
NG00,
-1.41%

NGV21,
-1.41%

down 8 cents, or 1.9%, at $4.305 per million British thermal units.

Ida’s impact may be “most significant” in the U.S. natural-gas market, said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrials materials and energy at Third Bridge, in a recent note. “Louisiana is home to the Haynesville Shale and nearly half of the rigs drilling for natural gas in the country are there today.”

Even so, WTRG’s Williams told MarketWatch that falling U.S. natural-gas production has made that market less sensitive to hurricane interruptions.

He said that while about 94% of Gulf of Mexico natural gas production was shut in, that accounted for only about 2% of total U.S. production. During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, natural-gas production shut ins accounted for over 15% of total U.S. production, he said.

Looking ahead, the next “fundamental development for crude is the Sept. 1 OPEC+ meeting,” said Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the group’s allies, known as OPEC+ collectively, previously agreed, after a standoff between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to begin raising output in increments of 400,000 barrels a day beginning this month, until existing output curbs are fully unwound.

Commodities Corner: To pause or not to pause oil output increases is the question OPEC+ faces as it meets Wednesday

“While the U.S. shut-ins are likely to be a week or so (absent major damage), this may provide cover for approving the incremental OPEC crude,” said Glickman.

The Biden administration earlier this month called on OPEC+ to further boost output, but analysts said a response appears unlikely.

“We do not foresee any fireworks from the group following the more recent recovery in prices. And we expect that they will continue the easing of their supply cuts as planned,” Patterson said.

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