“Sell on the good news.”

How many times have you heard that term used? It happens frequently when a company announces results that are better than analysts had expected because some investors begin to believe things can only get worse. But such thinking might lead to selling too early and missing out on lucrative gains down the road.

Such might be the case with Zoom Video Communications Inc.
ZM,
which said Aug. 30 that sales for its fiscal second quarter ended July 31 had increased 54% from a year earlier. It beat consensus estimates for sales and profit. The following day, the company’s shares were down 16%.

Zoom has been one of the biggest winners during the Covid-19 pandemic, which made remote work a necessity for millions and video conferences — often making use of Zoom’s user-friendly platform — a must. The company’s stock rose 411% from the end of 2019 through the close Aug. 30.

Below is a screen of stocks that have at least doubled during the pandemic and are expected to increase sales quickly through 2024.

So what was the problem with Zoom? One thing that may have disappointed investors was that the company’s forecast for earnings for its fiscal third quarter was $1.07 to 1.08 a share, while analysts polled by FactSet had anticipated guidance of $1.10 a share. That may be splitting hairs for a company whose main focus is sales growth.

Read: Zoom’s pandemic boom cools — but the company is building a powerful platform to battle Microsoft and Cisco

Digging further, Mizuho Americas analyst Siti Panigrahi wrote in a note to clients that “churn rising earlier-than-expected” among small businesses with fewer than 10 employees led to the lower-than-expected guidance. Panigrahi maintained a “buy” rating on Zoom but cut his price target for the shares to $350 from $400. Even the lower price target would represent 20% upside within a year from the stock’s closing price of $292.08 on Aug. 30.

And something else that may be of interest is that analysts, based on consensus estimates in a FactSet survey, expect the company’s sales to increase at a high compound annual growth rate of 21.7% for the next three calendar years.

Pandemic winners expected to keep … winning

Starting with the components of the Russell 1000 Index
RUI,
141 stocks have at least doubled since the end of 2019 — a fair point from which to measure performance that encompasses the entire pandemic, without starting after so many stocks tanked in February 2020. Among those 141, consensus sales estimates are available from FactSet through calendar 2024 for 85 companies. We are using calendar years for the estimates because a large number of companies (including Zoom) have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar.

Here are the 30 companies whose stocks have at least doubled since the end of 2019 that are expected to achieve the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales, through 2024. Revenue numbers are in millions:

Company

Expected three-year sales CAGR

Estimated revenue – 2021

Estimated revenue – 2022

Estimated revenue – 2023

Estimated revenue – 2024

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.
SPCE

410.3%

$2

$14

$65

$265

Acceleron Pharma Inc.
XLRN

62.7%

$133

$203

$318

$571

ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A
CHPT

62.0%

$202

$336

$555

$860

Plug Power Inc.
PLUG

50.0%

$499

$756

$1,149

$1,687

Zillow Group Inc. Class C
Z

42.6%

$6,595

$9,910

$14,461

$19,130

Carvana Co. Class A
CVNA

37.2%

$11,857

$15,523

$20,839

$30,607

DraftKings Inc. Class A
DKNG

34.7%

$1,278

$1,762

$2,398

$3,121

Roku Inc. Class A
ROKU

33.9%

$2,843

$3,876

$5,068

$6,829

Okta Inc. Class A
OKTA

33.7%

$1,189

$1,633

$2,154

$2,843

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A
CRWD

32.2%

$1,321

$1,809

$2,389

$3,052

Pinterest Inc. Class A
PINS

31.2%

$2,616

$3,430

$4,635

$5,906

Freshpet Inc.
FRPT

31.1%

$446

$580

$756

$1,005

10x Genomics Inc. Class A
TXG

30.4%

$498

$687

$903

$1,105

Trade Desk Inc. Class A
TTD

30.3%

$1,170

$1,510

$1,930

$2,587

Zscaler Inc.
ZS

29.8%

$762

$1,017

$1,317

$1,668

Globant S.A.
GLOB

29.0%

$1,235

$1,568

$1,944

$2,654

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
RARE

28.5%

$356

$407

$508

$755

Atlassian Corp. PLC Class A
TEAM

26.8%

$2,315

$2,836

$3,598

$4,714

EPAM Systems Inc.
EPAM

26.4%

$3,665

$4,627

$5,731

$7,394

Tesla Inc.
TSLA

26.2%

$50,185

$67,838

$82,652

$100,867

Elastic N.V.
ESTC

25.9%

$746

$953

$1,206

$1,489

Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A
PTON

25.7%

$4,697

$6,141

$7,785

$9,327

Enphase Energy Inc.
ENPH

24.6%

$1,336

$1,793

$2,232

$2,584

ServiceNow Inc.
NOW

22.8%

$5,841

$7,310

$9,121

$10,818

Etsy Inc.
ETSY

22.4%

$2,280

$2,747

$3,351

$4,179

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. Class A
FND

22.3%

$3,339

$4,007

$4,874

$6,106

Novavax Inc.
NVAX

22.0%

$1,984

$5,493

$3,048

$3,607

Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A
ZM

21.7%

$3,894

$4,667

$5,489

$7,027

DexCom Inc.
DXCM

21.5%

$2,398

$2,915

$3,527

$4,306

PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL

20.9%

$25,753

$31,558

$38,229

$45,484

Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company, including news, business profiles and price ratios.

The problem with a stock screen based on any one number is that the results might be skewed. Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.
SPCE
is expected to show revenue of only $2 million for calendar 2021, and its estimate for 2024 is the lowest on the list. As you can see below, only 36% of analysts polled by FactSet rate Virgin Galactic a “buy” or the equivalent.

This underscores the importance of doing your own research on any investment of interest. For a stock, consider how likely the company is to be able to remain competitive over the next decade.

Leaving the group in the same order, here’s a summary of analysts’ opinions and, to the right, total returns for the stocks since the end of 2019:

Company

Share “buy” ratings

Closing price – Aug. 30

Consensus price target

Implied 12-month upside potential

Total return – Dec. 31, 2019, through Aug. 31, 2021

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.
SPCE

36%

24.88

$34.82

40%

115%

Acceleron Pharma Inc.
XLRN

79%

132.76

$154.50

16%

150%

ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A
CHPT

88%

20.89

$36.00

72%

112%

Plug Power Inc.
PLUG

65%

26.13

$40.68

56%

727%

Zillow Group Inc. Class C
Z

65%

96.10

$162.42

69%

109%

Carvana Co. Class A
CVNA

59%

337.76

$380.23

13%

267%

DraftKings Inc. Class A
DKNG

67%

59.25

$69.93

18%

454%

Roku Inc. Class A
ROKU

75%

355.90

$483.09

36%

166%

Okta Inc. Class A
OKTA

65%

264.98

$276.77

4%

130%

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A
CRWD

92%

286.37

$288.78

1%

474%

Pinterest Inc. Class A
PINS

50%

56.49

$71.43

26%

203%

Freshpet Inc.
FRPT

71%

127.10

$177.00

39%

115%

10x Genomics Inc. Class A
TXG

90%

173.75

$203.25

17%

128%

Trade Desk Inc. Class A
TTD

65%

80.71

$88.23

9%

211%

Zscaler Inc.
ZS

67%

278.17

$256.24

-8%

498%

Globant S.A.
GLOB

92%

322.60

$304.78

-6%

204%

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
RARE

63%

95.79

$143.67

50%

124%

Atlassian Corp. PLC Class A
TEAM

64%

366.03

$343.53

-6%

204%

EPAM Systems Inc.
EPAM

71%

636.30

$661.50

4%

200%

Tesla Inc.
TSLA

44%

730.91

$701.14

-4%

774%

Elastic N.V.
ESTC

83%

159.03

$184.06

16%

147%

Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A
PTON

77%

101.48

$130.42

29%

257%

Enphase Energy Inc.
ENPH

63%

177.78

$199.52

12%

580%

ServiceNow Inc.
NOW

88%

641.65

$665.96

4%

127%

Etsy Inc.
ETSY

76%

217.71

$215.93

-1%

391%

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. Class A
FND

87%

122.02

$136.36

12%

140%

Novavax Inc.
NVAX

67%

233.23

$264.20

13%

5,760%

Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A
ZM

50%

347.50

$376.65

8%

411%

DexCom Inc.
DXCM

79%

521.54

$517.55

-1%

138%

PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL

87%

288.47

$332.83

15%

167%

Source: FactSet

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